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Best month to buy gold: what the monthly data shows

By Saad El Soussi, UAE-authorized finfluencer · Updated 2026-11-08

January has been gold’s strongest month, but the pattern is weaker than it looks. Since 2001 gold’s monthly average rose from December to January in 21 of 26 years (80.8%) and in 61.5% of Februaries; August (65.4%) and November (60.0%) came next, and July (42.3%) and June (46.2%) were the weakest. Since 1976 the January figure is only 33 of 51 (64.7%), and before 2001 it was 12 of 25 (48%), a coin flip. A calendar month alone has not been a reliable reason to buy.

How often gold rose in each calendar month

For every month from February 1975 we compared its average with the previous month’s average, then grouped by calendar month. Across all 620 months gold rose in 306 (49.4%), so 50% is the yardstick.

Month	Rose, 1975-2026	Rose, since 2001	Middle change, since 2001	Worst / best, since 2001
January	33 of 51 (64.7%)	21 of 26 (80.8%)	+2.11%	-4.1% / +10.8%
February	26 of 52 (50.0%)	16 of 26 (61.5%)	+1.64%	-3.2% / +9.8%
March	26 of 52 (50.0%)	13 of 26 (50.0%)	+0.06%	-5.0% / +6.7%
April	22 of 52 (42.3%)	13 of 26 (50.0%)	+0.26%	-6.6% / +9.7%
May	19 of 52 (36.5%)	12 of 26 (46.2%)	-0.08%	-5.0% / +10.5%
June	24 of 52 (46.2%)	12 of 26 (46.2%)	0.00%	-11.7% / +5.8%
July	25 of 52 (48.1%)	11 of 26 (42.3%)	-0.56%	-5.7% / +6.6%
August	29 of 52 (55.8%)	17 of 26 (65.4%)	+1.55%	-10.7% / +11.8%
September	27 of 52 (51.9%)	15 of 26 (57.7%)	+0.74%	-5.5% / +8.9%
October	25 of 51 (49.0%)	11 of 25 (44.0%)	0.00%	-6.0% / +10.6%
November	25 of 51 (49.0%)	15 of 25 (60.0%)	+0.63%	-6.3% / +8.1%
December	25 of 51 (49.0%)	14 of 25 (56.0%)	+0.54%	-6.5% / +7.2%

Month-to-month changes include the gain from December to January, which is why January also carries the single biggest move in the whole sample, +48.4% (December 1979 to January 1980). The first column starts with February 1975, so January has 51 observations (1976 to 2026) and February to September 52.

Why the pattern is weaker than it looks

It is mostly a 21st-century effect. Split at 2001: January rose in 12 of 25 years before (48%) and 21 of 26 after. February was 10 of 26 before and 16 of 26 after; May 7 of 26 and 12 of 26. The "best months" changed with the era.
Twelve months are tested at once. Odds of 21 or more ups in 26 coin flips are about 0.1%, but with 12 calendar months to pick from, a result that strong somewhere would appear by chance in roughly 3% of samples. That makes it notable but not proof.
The middle change is small. Even in January the middle result since 2001 was +2.1%, with a worst of -4.1% and a best of +10.8%. A typical monthly move of 1-2% is easily lost in the spread and a stop loss on a short-term trade.
Averages blur the entry price. A monthly average hides where inside the month gold really traded; buying "in January" could mean paying the month’s high.
The causes are guesses. Wedding seasons, jewellery demand, year-end fund flows and start-of-year buying are often named. We did not test any cause, so we do not claim one.

A simple version: buy in August, sell in February

August and January-February were the strongest stretch, so we tested the obvious plan on the same data: compare the August average with the following February average, for each year from 1975 to 2025 (51 windows). Gold was higher in 31 (60.8%); the middle result was +5.1%, the worst -20.3% and the best +120.9%. Starting from 2000 (26 windows) it was higher in 19 (73.1%). That is about three years in five, with a loss of a fifth in the worst one, so even the best calendar window was not safe. For comparison, a random 6-month window is not far from that: see gold forecast for 1-, 3- and 12-month odds across all start months.

What to use instead of the calendar

Trend and levels. Where gold sits against its recent range matters more than the month. See gold trading strategy and support and resistance.
Time of day, not time of year. The hours when gold moves most are measured on forex trading sessions.
A stop loss and a size. Whichever month you pick, decide the loss first: stop loss and the lot size calculator.
The live price. Gold price today and the longer record on gold price history.

Limits: monthly averages smooth highs and lows; US dollar prices, not your own currency; about 26 observations per month in the recent era; the months are not independent of the trend in each year (2025-26 was a strong run). Run date: 6 November 2026.

Key points

Gold rose in 49.4% of all months since 1975; January was the best calendar month in the 21st century (21 of 26 Januarys up).
Before 2001 January was a coin flip (12 of 25), so the pattern is not stable.
The middle January change since 2001 was +2.1%; July (42.3% up) and June (46.2%) were weakest.
Buying in August and looking at February was higher in 31 of 51 years, with a worst of -20.3%.
Use a calendar month at most as a small input; plan the stop loss and position size first. Trading is risky and most retail accounts lose money.

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Questions people ask

What is the best month to buy gold?

In the data since 2001 January has been strongest: the monthly average rose from December in 21 of 26 years (80.8%). Before 2001 it rose in only 12 of 25, so no month has been a dependable buy signal.

What is the worst month to buy gold?

July and June were weakest since 2001: July rose in 42.3% of years (11 of 26), June in 46.2% (12 of 26). Over the full period since 1975, May was the weakest (19 of 52, 36.5%).

Is gold cheaper in the summer?

Not reliably. Since 2001 the monthly average rose in 42.3% of Julys and 46.2% of Junes and Mays, so summer months were more often flat or down than up, but the middle change was within about 0.6% either way.

Does gold go up in January?

Since 2001 the January average was above December in 21 of 26 years, with a middle change of +2.1%. From 1976 to 2000 it was 12 of 25. The effect may be real, but it is recent and unproven.

Is it better to buy gold in August and sell in February?

Comparing August and February monthly averages for 1975-2025, gold was higher in 31 of 51 years (60.8%), middle +5.1%, worst -20.3%, best +120.9%. Better than a coin flip, but it lost in about two years in five.

Authorized in the UAESaad Nizar El Soussi, founder of SesTrading, is listed by the UAE Capital Market Authority as an authorized finfluencer (entry 193, added 24 September 2026). Check the official list.