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Gold and the US dollar: what the numbers show

By Saad El Soussi, UAE-authorized finfluencer · Updated 2026-11-08

Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions, but the link is loose. Over 314 months from August 2000 to October 2026 the correlation between monthly changes in gold and the ICE US Dollar Index was -0.45: in months when the index fell, gold rose 72% of the time (115 of 159); in months when it rose, gold rose only 39% of the time (60 of 154). Yet the dollar explains only about a fifth of gold’s monthly variation, gold and the dollar both rose in 8 of the last 26 calendar years, and since the end of 2000 the index has lost just 6.6% while gold has multiplied fifteenfold. On 6 November 2026 the index stood at 102.3 and gold at $4,074.9.

Why gold and the dollar are linked at all

Gold is priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, the same ounce becomes cheaper for a buyer holding euros, yen or rupees, which supports demand and the dollar price; when the dollar strengthens, the reverse. Both also react to the same thing: US interest rates after inflation. Higher real rates make a non-yielding metal less attractive and make dollar deposits more attractive, so gold and the dollar often move at the same time for a shared reason rather than one driving the other.

That is why the link is real but partial. Gold also responds to central-bank buying, crisis demand, jewellery and investment flows, none of which care about EUR/USD. The numbers below show how often the textbook relationship held and how often it did not.

Month by month: 314 months since 2000

When the dollar index in a month was…	Months	Gold rose	Gold’s median move
Up	154	60 (39.0%)	-1.1%
Down	159	115 (72.3%)	+2.6%
Up 1% or more	96	35 (36.5%)	-1.4%
Down 1% or more	102	84 (82.4%)	+3.1%
Up 2% or more	55	18 (32.7%)	-2.1%
Down 2% or more	49	42 (85.7%)	+4.2%

The correlation of the monthly changes is -0.45, and the regression slope is -0.99: on average, a 1% move in the index came with a 1% move in gold the other way. But a correlation of -0.45 means the dollar accounts for about 20% of the variation in gold’s monthly moves (R² 0.20); the other 80% is everything else. Gold rose in 176 of the 314 months (56.1%) regardless of what the dollar did, because the period was a long gold bull market.

Day to day the picture is the same but noisier: across 6,568 trading days the correlation was -0.40. On the 160 days the index rose 1% or more, gold fell on 122 (76%), median -0.84%; on the 161 days it fell 1% or more, gold rose on 136 (84%), median +1.22%.

The link changes strength over time

We recalculated the correlation over every rolling 12-month window. It was negative in 94% of windows and below -0.5 in 52% of them. The strongest inverse reading was -0.89 (the 12 months to May 2023); the only clearly positive stretch peaked at +0.30 in the 12 months to January 2011, when gold and the dollar both rose during the euro-area debt crisis. The latest window, the 12 months to October 2026, reads -0.66. So the relationship is almost always inverse, but its strength swings from "nearly perfect mirror" to "barely there".

Every dollar swing of 8% or more since 2002, and what gold did

From the index’s peak of 120.2 in January 2002 we marked every move of at least 8% in monthly closes (a swing ends when the index reverses by 8% from its extreme). There were 13: seven dollar falls and six dollar rallies.

Period	Dollar index	Dollar move	Gold move	Months
Jan 2002 – Dec 2004	120.2 → 80.8	-32.8%	+55.1%	35
Dec 2004 – Nov 2005	80.8 → 91.6	+13.3%	+13.1%	11
Nov 2005 – Mar 2008	91.6 → 71.8	-21.6%	+85.2%	28
Mar 2008 – Feb 2009	71.8 → 88.0	+22.6%	+2.8%	11
Feb 2009 – Nov 2009	88.0 → 74.9	-14.9%	+25.4%	9
Nov 2009 – May 2010	74.9 → 86.5	+15.5%	+2.6%	6
May 2010 – Apr 2011	86.5 → 72.9	-15.7%	+28.4%	11
Apr 2011 – Dec 2016	72.9 → 102.4	+40.4%	-26.1%	68
Dec 2016 – Jan 2018	102.4 → 89.1	-13.0%	+16.4%	13
Jan 2018 – Sep 2019	89.1 → 99.4	+11.5%	+9.5%	20
Sep 2019 – Dec 2020	99.4 → 89.9	-9.5%	+29.3%	15
Dec 2020 – Sep 2022	89.9 → 112.1	+24.7%	-11.8%	21
Sep 2022 – Jun 2025	112.1 → 96.9	-13.6%	+97.8%	33

Gold rose in all seven dollar falls, by 16% to 98%. In the six dollar rallies it fell only twice, in the two biggest and longest ones (2011-16 and 2020-22), and still rose in the other four, though by little in 2008-09 and 2009-10. The asymmetry is the point: a falling dollar has been reliably good for gold; a rising dollar has been bad for gold only when the rally was large and sustained. Since June 2025 the index has drifted from 96.9 to 102.3 (+5.6%, not yet a swing by our rule) while gold went from $3,307.7 to $4,074.9.

Year by year, 2001-2026

Year	Gold	Dollar index	Index at year end	Gold at year end
2001	+2.5%	+6.6%	116.8	$278.7
2002	+24.7%	-12.8%	101.8	$347.6
2003	+19.6%	-14.7%	86.9	$415.7
2004	+5.2%	-7.0%	80.8	$437.5
2005	+18.2%	+12.8%	91.2	$517.1
2006	+22.8%	-8.2%	83.7	$635.2
2007	+31.4%	-8.4%	76.7	$834.9
2008	+5.8%	+6.0%	81.3	$883.6
2009	+23.9%	-4.2%	77.9	$1,095.2
2010	+29.8%	+1.5%	79.0	$1,421.1
2011	+10.2%	+1.4%	80.2	$1,565.8
2012	+7.0%	-0.5%	79.8	$1,674.8
2013	-28.2%	+0.3%	80.0	$1,201.9
2014	-1.5%	+12.8%	90.3	$1,183.9
2015	-10.4%	+9.3%	98.6	$1,060.3
2016	+8.5%	+3.8%	102.4	$1,150.0
2017	+13.6%	-10.0%	92.1	$1,306.3
2018	-2.1%	+4.4%	96.2	$1,278.3
2019	+18.9%	+0.2%	96.4	$1,519.5
2020	+24.7%	-6.7%	89.9	$1,895.1
2021	-3.5%	+6.4%	95.7	$1,828.6
2022	-0.1%	+8.2%	103.5	$1,826.2
2023	+13.4%	-2.1%	101.3	$2,071.8
2024	+27.5%	+7.1%	108.5	$2,641.0
2025	+64.4%	-9.4%	98.3	$4,341.1
2026 (to 6 Nov)	-6.1%	+4.1%	102.3	$4,074.9

Gold and the dollar moved in opposite directions in 18 of the 26 years. In the other eight (2001, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2019, 2024) both rose; there was no year in which both fell. The two heaviest gold years of the 2010s, 2013 (-28.2%) and 2015 (-10.4%), came with a flat and a strong dollar respectively, and 2025’s +64.4% came with a -9.4% dollar, so the recent extremes fit the textbook. 2024 did not: gold +27.5% with the dollar +7.1%.

The long run: the dollar did not make gold expensive

A common claim is that gold only "goes up" because the dollar goes down. The 26-year numbers do not support it. From the end of 2000 to 6 November 2026 the dollar index fell from 109.6 to 102.3, a loss of 6.6%, while gold rose from $272.0 to $4,074.9, almost fifteenfold. Gold rose against every major currency in that period; the dollar’s weakness against the euro and yen accounts for a few percentage points of it, not the bulk. The index’s extremes since 2000 were 120.2 (January 2002, monthly close) and 71.8 (March 2008); its all-time daily high was 164.72 on 25 February 1985 and its low 71.33 on 22 April 2008.

How traders use it, and the limits

As a filter, not a trigger. A dollar that is falling hard (down 1% or more on the day, or 2% on the month) has been good context for gold longs 82-86% of the time. It says nothing about the entry; use levels and a stop for that.
Watch EUR/USD, because that is most of the index. With the euro at 57.6% of the weight, a dollar-index move is mostly a euro move. A strong dollar caused by a weak euro is not the same as a strong dollar caused by rising US real rates, and gold has reacted differently to the two.
Both can rise together. In eight of 26 years they did, usually when investors wanted safety and bought both. Do not short gold just because the dollar is firm.
Mind the size of the move. The slope of about -1 means a 0.5% dollar move "explains" roughly 0.5% in gold, about $20 at today’s price, well inside a normal day’s range (see gold price today).

Limits: futures closes, one dollar index, monthly and daily changes only, a period that was mostly a gold bull market, and correlation, which is not causation. Run date: 7 November 2026.

Key points

Monthly correlation of gold and the ICE US Dollar Index, Aug 2000 to Oct 2026: -0.45; the dollar explains about a fifth of gold’s monthly variation.
Dollar-down months: gold rose 72% of the time (86% when the fall was 2%+). Dollar-up months: gold rose 39% of the time.
Gold rose in all seven dollar falls of 8%+ since 2002, and fell in only the two biggest dollar rallies (2011-16, 2020-22).
Both rose together in 8 of 26 years; both never fell together. Since end-2000 the index is -6.6% while gold is ×15.
On 6 Nov 2026: index 102.3, gold $4,074.9. Context, not a signal. Trading is risky and most retail accounts lose money.

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Questions people ask

Does gold go up when the dollar goes down?

Usually. In 159 months since August 2000 when the ICE US Dollar Index fell, gold rose in 115 (72%); when the index fell 2% or more, gold rose in 42 of 49 months (86%). It also rose in all seven dollar declines of 8% or more since 2002.

Does gold fall when the dollar rises?

Less reliably. In 154 dollar-up months gold still rose in 60 (39%). In the six dollar rallies of 8% or more since 2002, gold fell in only two, the biggest and longest ones (2011-16 and 2020-22).

What is the correlation between gold and the US dollar?

-0.45 on monthly changes (August 2000 to October 2026) and -0.40 on daily changes, measured against the ICE US Dollar Index. The 12-month rolling correlation was negative in 94% of windows, ranging from -0.89 to +0.30.

Can gold and the dollar rise at the same time?

Yes. Both rose in 8 of the 26 calendar years from 2001 to 2026 (2001, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2019, 2024), typically when investors bought both as safe havens. There was no year in which both fell.

Is gold high only because the dollar is weak?

No. From the end of 2000 to 6 November 2026 the dollar index fell 6.6% (109.6 to 102.3) while gold rose from $272 to $4,075, about fifteenfold. Gold rose against every major currency.

Authorized in the UAESaad Nizar El Soussi, founder of SesTrading, is listed by the UAE Capital Market Authority as an authorized finfluencer (entry 193, added 24 September 2026). Check the official list.