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Gold vs stocks: what the data shows since 2000

By Saad El Soussi, UAE-authorized finfluencer · Updated 2026-11-08

Gold has moved almost independently of the S&P 500: the correlation of their monthly changes since late 2000 is just +0.07, and gold has been up in about half of the months stocks fell (63 of 117). It helped in the two biggest bear markets (+15.4% while the S&P fell 48.9% in 2000-02, +24.5% while it fell 56.8% in 2007-09) but not in 2020 (-2.5%) or 2022 (-6.8%). Gold beat the S&P 500 in 14 of the 25 calendar years 2001-2025. Gold is a diversifier with a mixed record, not a stock-market hedge you can count on.

Month by month: 313 months

From the last day of September 2000 to the end of October 2026 we compared each month’s change in gold with the S&P 500’s. Gold rose in 176 of the 313 months (56.2%) with an average of +0.97% a month.

When the S&P 500 was...	Months	Gold rose	Gold’s middle change
Up	196	113 (57.7%)	+0.84%
Down	117	63 (53.8%)	+0.91%
Down 3% or more	53	32 (60.4%)	+1.96%
Down 5% or more	36	24 (66.7%)	+2.02%
Up 5% or more	42	24 (57.1%)	+0.88%

Correlation of the monthly changes is +0.07 (0 would be no link at all). By era: +0.07 in 2000-2012 (147 months), -0.09 in 2013-2019 (84) and +0.17 in 2020-2026 (82). Gold did slightly better in the worst stock months, which is what people mean by a safe haven, but it was still down in a third of them.

The five big drops

S&P 500 fall	Dates	S&P 500	Gold, same dates
Dot-com bust	Sep 2000 - Oct 2002	-48.9%	+15.4% (277.0 to 319.6)
Financial crisis	Oct 2007 - Mar 2009	-56.8%	+24.5% (737.4 to 917.7)
Q4 2018 sell-off	Sep - Dec 2018	-19.8%	+5.1%
Covid crash	19 Feb - 23 Mar 2020	-33.9%	-2.5%
2022 bear market	Jan - Oct 2022	-25.4%	-6.8%

Peak-to-trough dates are the S&P 500’s daily closes; gold is measured over the same two dates. Gold gained in the first three and lost in the last two. In the March 2020 panic even gold was sold for cash: the S&P’s worst month of that crash, March 2020 (-12.5%), saw gold +1.2%, but within the 19 Feb to 23 Mar window it still fell. In October 2008, the worst month of the financial crisis for stocks (-16.9%), gold fell too (-18.0%).

The five worst S&P months in the sample: October 2008 (stocks -16.9%, gold -18.0%), March 2020 (-12.5%, +1.2%), September 2002 (-11.0%, +3.7%), February 2009 (-11.0%, +1.5%), September 2022 (-9.3%, -3.1%). Gold rose in three of five.

Year by year: 2001-2025

Year	Gold	S&P 500	Year	Gold	S&P 500
2001	+2.5%	-13.0%	2014	-1.5%	+11.4%
2002	+24.7%	-23.4%	2015	-10.4%	-0.7%
2003	+19.6%	+26.4%	2016	+8.5%	+9.5%
2004	+5.2%	+9.0%	2017	+13.6%	+19.4%
2005	+18.2%	+3.0%	2018	-2.1%	-6.2%
2006	+22.8%	+13.6%	2019	+18.9%	+28.9%
2007	+31.4%	+3.5%	2020	+24.7%	+16.3%
2008	+5.8%	-38.5%	2021	-3.5%	+26.9%
2009	+23.9%	+23.5%	2022	-0.1%	-19.4%
2010	+29.8%	+12.8%	2023	+13.4%	+24.2%
2011	+10.2%	0.0%	2024	+27.5%	+23.3%
2012	+7.0%	+13.4%	2025	+64.4%	+16.4%
2013	-28.2%	+29.6%

Year-end to year-end closes. Gold beat the S&P 500 in 14 of 25 years. The S&P fell by more than 0.1% in six years (2001, 2002, 2008, 2015, 2018, 2022) and gold rose in three of them (2001, 2002, 2008); in 2011 stocks were flat and gold rose 10.2%. Gold fell in 6 years (2013 was the worst at -28.2%, while stocks gained 29.6%). Compounded from the end of 2000 to the end of 2025, gold rose about 16 times and the S&P 500 (price only) about 5.2 times, a result that depends heavily on starting when gold was near a multi-decade low.

2026 so far (to 4 November): gold -6.2%, S&P 500 +12.3%. Over the 12 months to 4 November 2026 gold gained 2.8% and the S&P 500 13.5%, after gold’s strong 2025.

What this means for a trader or investor

Do not assume a hedge. A third to a half of the time stocks fall, gold falls or goes nowhere. The two best stock-market crashes for gold were slow, multi-year bear markets, not fast panics.
Think in scenarios. Gold gained in the two long bear markets and fell in the fast liquidity crises (autumn 2008, March 2020) and in 2022. We did not test why, so we do not claim a cause.
Trading is not investing. Whether you hold gold for years or trade gold on a chart, decide the loss first: stop loss, risk-reward ratio and the lot size calculator.
Context pages. Gold price history, gold forecast and the gold-silver ratio.

Limits: price-only S&P, US dollars, month-end and year-end closes (the dates are arbitrary), 25 years of mostly one regime, no cause tested. Gold futures and the index are not products you can buy directly. Run date: 6 November 2026.

Key points

Monthly correlation of gold and the S&P 500 since late 2000: +0.07, close to no link.
Gold rose in 63 of 117 S&P-down months and in 24 of 36 months with stocks down 5% or more.
Gold gained in the 2000-02 and 2007-09 bear markets (+15.4%, +24.5%) and fell in 2020 and 2022 (-2.5%, -6.8%).
Calendar years 2001-2025: gold beat the S&P 500 in 14 of 25; 2026 to 4 Nov gold -6.2%, stocks +12.3%.
Gold diversifies but does not reliably protect. Trading is risky and most retail accounts lose money.

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Questions people ask

Does gold go up when stocks go down?

Only about half the time. In 117 months since late 2000 when the S&P 500 fell, gold rose in 63 (53.8%). In the 36 months with a fall of 5% or more it rose in 24 (66.7%), so it helped more in bad months, but not every time.

Is gold a good hedge against a stock market crash?

It depends on the crash. Gold rose 15.4% in the 2000-02 bust and 24.5% in the 2007-09 crisis, but fell 2.5% in the 2020 crash and 6.8% in the 2022 bear market. In the worst month of 2008 it fell 18.0%.

Is gold or the S&P 500 the better investment?

Over 2001-2025, calendar year by calendar year, gold beat the S&P 500 (price only) in 14 of 25 years. From end 2000 to end 2025 gold rose about 16 times and the index about 5.2 times, but that starts when gold was cheap. In 2026 to 4 November gold is -6.2% and the index +12.3%.

What is the correlation between gold and the S&P 500?

Using 313 monthly changes from 2000 to 2026 it is +0.07, essentially no relationship. It was -0.09 in 2013-2019 and +0.17 in 2020-2026.

Does gold fall when stocks rise?

Not systematically. When the S&P 500 rose, gold also rose in 113 of 196 months (57.7%).

Authorized in the UAESaad Nizar El Soussi, founder of SesTrading, is listed by the UAE Capital Market Authority as an authorized finfluencer (entry 193, added 24 September 2026). Check the official list.